Blackjack, also known as twenty-one, is a popular casino card game. The objective is to beat the dealer by getting a hand value as close to 21 as possible without going over. When a player is dealt a hand with a value of 16 against the dealer’s upcard of 7, a common question arises: should the player “hit” and take another card, or “stand” with the 16 and hope the dealer busts? There are compelling arguments on both sides, and the decision can have major implications for the outcome of the hand. In this article, we will explore the factors to consider when deciding whether to hit or stand on 16 against a 7 upcard.
Basic Blackjack Strategy
According to basic strategy, developed through computer simulations of millions of blackjack hands, the mathematically optimal play against a dealer 7 upcard when holding a 16 is to stand. The reasons behind this recommendation are:
- The dealer has a 35% chance of busting when showing a 7 upcard. This is because the dealer must continue taking cards until reaching a hard 17 or higher. With a 7 showing, the dealer has a good chance of going over 21.
- When hitting on 16, there is a high likelihood of going bust. The only cards that can improve the 16 are 5s, 6s, 7s, and 8s. Any 10-point card or Ace will push the player over 21.
- Even if the player hits and gets one of the “safe” cards to improve to 17-19, the dealer still has a chance to beat that by getting 18-21.
So by standing on 16, the player is relying on the dealer having a 35% chance of busting and beating their own hand. Hitting exposes the player to a significant risk of busting themselves while improving the hand only slightly.
When the Dealer is Showing a 7 Upcard
Let’s examine why the dealer has a 35% chance of busting when showing a 7:
- There are 16 cards in a deck valued at 10 points – the four 10s, four Jacks, four Queens, and four Kings. This equates to a 16/52 or 30.8% chance of the dealer’s hole card being a 10.
- If the dealer’s hole card is a 10, then their starting hand is 17. They must hit again and now have a 31% chance of busting by drawing one of the 13 remaining bust cards.
- If the hole card is NOT a 10, the dealer’s starting hand ranges from 7-17. They must continue hitting until reaching 17+, giving them up to a 46% chance of busting, depending on the starting total.
Combining these scenarios gives the dealer about a 35% chance of exceeding 21 when showing a 7 upcard initially.
When the Player is Showing 16
Now let’s consider the player’s chances of busting when hitting on a 16:
- The player currently has a hand value of 16 with 10 unknown cards remaining in the deck.
- Of those 10 cards, 4 of them are 10-point cards that would bust the player if drawn.
- 4/10 = 40% chance of busting by taking a hit on 16.
Additionally, even if the player hits and receives a “safe” card like a 5 or 6, they are still left with only a marginal hand value of 17-19 versus the dealer’s potentially superior hand.
Factors that Could Change the Decision
While basic strategy recommends standing on 16 versus a dealer 7, there are some important factors that can change the optimal play:
Player Hand Composition
If the player’s 16 hand is made up of more than two cards, like a 5-4-3-4, it changes the implications of hitting or standing. Having additional cards decreases the chances of busting on the next hit and may make it worth taking the risk to try improving the hand.
Dealer Upcard
The dealer’s upcard has a major impact on the decision. While standing on 16 versus a 7 is recommended, the advice changes against a dealer 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. Hitting becomes the better option since the dealer has a higher chance of beating a 16 with those upcards.
Number of Decks
Basic strategy is based on a 6-deck shoe, common in many casinos. If the game is using fewer or more decks, it adjusts the probabilities involved and could alter the best decision. Single-deck blackjack especially can shift the optimal plays.
House Rules
Some house rules like allowing the dealer to hit soft 17 can also change basic strategy guidance. Again, this adjusts the chances of the dealer busting versus making a higher hand.
Card Counting
Card counters keep track of the cards dealt in order to determine when the remaining deck favors the player or dealer. If the count indicates there are more 10-point cards left, hitting becomes riskier for the player.
Basic Strategy Recommendations
Here is a summary of basic strategy recommendations for a player hand of 16 against various dealer upcards, assuming a 6-deck shoe:
Dealer Upcard | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 or A |
Basic Strategy | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand |
The Conclusion on 16 vs 7
While the situation may seem precarious, basic blackjack strategy recommends standing on 16 against the dealer’s 7 upcard. Taking a hit risks busting at a very high rate, while having relatively little potential to improve the hand’s value. Meanwhile, the dealer has a better than 1-in-3 chance of going over 21 themselves when starting with a 7 showing. This gives the player the best mathematical odds of winning the hand.
Of course, the composition of the player’s 16 hand and other table conditions can change the ideal decision. It often comes down to a judgment call weighing the bust odds versus the chance of improving the hand. Standing pat and hoping the dealer busts may feel like the less risky choice, but taking a hit could win big if lady luck is on the player’s side. As long as you understand the percentages involved, either standing or hitting on 16 can be justified against the dealer’s 7 depending on your comfort level of risk.