Population growth is an important indicator of economic and social trends within a region. Comparing the rate of population growth between Texas and the nation as a whole can provide insight into factors like economic opportunity, quality of life, and demographic shifts. This article will analyze the most recent population data to assess how Texas’ growth compares to broader national trends.
Texas has a reputation for rapid expansion, fueled by factors like the tech boom in Austin, abundant oil and gas reserves, and immigration across the Mexico border. However, population growth is occurring nationwide, not just in Texas. This article will analyze the data to determine if Texas’ population spike is an outlier or in line with broader US trends.
Key questions to be addressed include:
- What has been the rate of population growth in Texas over the past decade compared to the US as a whole?
- How does Texas’ big city growth compare to major US metro areas like New York and Los Angeles?
- Are certain demographic groups like young professionals driving disproportionate growth in Texas?
- How do birth rates and immigration patterns differ between Texas and nationwide?
- What factors are fueling population growth in Texas and does this mirror or diverge from national trends?
By analyzing the latest data from the US Census Bureau, Texas state agencies, and other authoritative sources, this article will paint a data-driven picture of how Texas’ stunning population boom fits into the broader narrative of US growth.
Texas Population Growth vs. National Growth
According to the US Census Bureau, between 2010 and 2020 Texas’ population grew by approximately 4 million people, from 25.1 million to 29.1 million. This reflects a population growth rate of approximately 15.9% for the decade.
By comparison, the US population excluding Texas grew by approximately 18.1 million people from 308.7 million to 326.8 million. This reflects a national population growth rate of approximately 5.9% for the decade, less than half the rate of Texas.
So while both Texas and the US as a whole experienced robust population expansion from 2010 to 2020, the rate in Texas far outpaced the nationwide growth rate. This indicates that population growth in Texas has been outlier, exceeding the broader national trend.
Texas vs. US Population Growth Rates
| Region | 2010 Population | 2020 Population | Numeric Change | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 25,145,561 | 29,145,505 | +3,999,944 | +15.9% |
| US (excluding Texas) | 308,745,538 | 326,817,792 | +18,072,254 | +5.9% |
Growth in Major Texas Cities
Texas’ surging statewide population has been driven in large part by rapid expansion of its major metro areas. This includes booming cities like Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and Dallas-Fort Worth.
Looking at county-level data provides a snapshot of population growth in these major urban centers. Among Texas’ five most populous counties, each centered around a major city, exponential growth occurred from 2010 to 2020:
- Harris County (Houston): +699,592 new residents (+15.1% increase)
- Dallas County (Dallas): +314,495 new residents (+13.7% increase)
- Tarrant County (Fort Worth): +289,030 new residents (+19.4% increase)
- Bexar County (San Antonio): +245,583 new residents (+19.1% increase)
- Travis County (Austin): +222,954 new residents (+29.2% increase)
This rapid expansion of Texas’ core urban counties aligns with broader migration patterns across the US. Major metro areas nationwide experienced significant population booms over the past decade as young professionals, immigrants, and other groups flocked to cities for jobs and amenities.
However, the growth rates in core Texas counties still managed to outpace many other major US metro areas. For example, Los Angeles County grew by just 2.8% and Cook County (Chicago) grew by 1.2% during the decade – far below the double-digit spikes seen across core Texas counties.
Population Growth in Major Texas Urban Counties
| County | 2010 Population | 2020 Population | Numeric Change | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris (Houston) | 4,092,459 | 4,711,077 | +699,592 | +15.1% |
| Dallas | 2,368,139 | 2,635,516 | +314,495 | +13.7% |
| Tarrant (Fort Worth) | 1,809,034 | 2,102,515 | +289,030 | +19.4% |
| Bexar (San Antonio) | 1,714,773 | 1,958,578 | +245,583 | +19.1% |
| Travis (Austin) | 1,024,266 | 1,273,954 | +222,954 | +29.2% |
Source: US Census
Drivers of Texas Growth
Tracking demographic patterns provides insight into the factors driving Texas’ outlier population boom compared to modest nationwide growth. Two key groups experiencing disproportionate growth in Texas are young college-educated professionals and immigrants from Latin America.
Young Professionals
Data indicates Texas metropolitan areas like Austin and Houston gained a disproportionate share of young college-educated residents compared to the US over the past decade. This aligns with the tech industry boom in Austin and expanding opportunities for young professionals across Texas’ urban centers.
Specifically, the population of 25-39 year olds with at least a bachelor’s degree grew by 29.6% in the Houston metro area from 2010-2019. Comparatively, this demographic group grew by just 6.3% nationwide over the same period.
So the abundant job opportunities and lower cost of living compared to coastal tech hubs like San Francisco are attracting young skilled workers to Texas in droves, driving exceptional population growth.
Immigration
Immigration from Latin America, especially Mexico, has also played a major role in Texas’ population boom. From 2010 to 2018, Texas gained roughly 1.6 million new residents from net international immigration. Approximately 45% came from Latin America and 30% came specifically from Mexico.
By comparison, international immigration was relatively flat nationwide from 2010 to 2018, contributing only about 10% of the US population growth over those years. So inbound migration from south of the border gave Texas population a disproportionate boost compared to national trends.
Combined, these two demographic groups – young professionals and immigrants – largely explain why Texas’ population growth massively outpaced nationwide growth this past decade. These trends mirror the economic and cultural draw of thriving Texas cities for both international and domestic migration patterns.
Comparison of Growth Drivers
| Demographic | Texas | US Overall |
|---|---|---|
| Growth of 25-39 college-educated population, 2010-2019 | +29.6% (Houston metro) | +6.3% |
| Net immigration from Latin America, 2010-2018 | +1.6 million total | Relatively flat |
Sources: Kinder Institute, Migration Policy Institute
Birth Rates and Fertility
In addition to new residents moving to Texas, differences in birth rates and fertility between Texas and the US also contributed to disproportionate population growth.
Texas has long maintained higher fertility and birth rates compared to northeastern and western states. From 2010 to 2019, the average Texas fertility rate hovered between 2.15 to 2.25 births per woman. Comparatively, fertility for the US as a whole ranged between 1.75 to 1.85 births per woman over those years.
This gap held relatively steady, with Texas maintaining a fertility rate consistently around 0.4 births higher per woman than the US average. More births per capita drove rapid natural population growth in Texas compared to many parts of the country.
Experts attribute the higher Texas fertility rate to factors like a younger population, high Hispanic population share, less delayed childbearing, and more unintended pregnancies. Regardless of origins, Texas’ exceptional birth rate fueled population growth unmatched nationwide.
Texas vs. US Fertility Rates, 2010-2019
| Year | Texas Fertility Rate | US Fertility Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2.15 | 1.93 |
| 2011 | 2.18 | 1.89 |
| 2012 | 2.21 | 1.88 |
| 2013 | 2.19 | 1.86 |
| 2014 | 2.21 | 1.86 |
| 2015 | 2.23 | 1.84 |
| 2016 | 2.27 | 1.82 |
| 2017 | 2.25 | 1.76 |
| 2018 | 2.26 | 1.73 |
| 2019 | 2.15 | 1.71 |
Source: CDC
Conclusion
In summary, Texas experienced runaway population growth over the past decade that vastly exceeded nationwide growth trends. While the US population expanded by around 6% from 2010 to 2020, Texas grew by almost 16% over those years.
This disproportionate growth stemmed from Texas metropolitan areas like Austin and Houston attracting young skilled workers, immigration from Mexico and Latin America, and higher natural birth rates. Together, these factors created a perfect storm driving Texas’ outlier population spike compared to the rest of the nation.
Going forward, it remains to be seen whether Texas can sustain this exceptional growth trajectory. Nationwide demographic shifts like declining fertility and aging baby boomers will pose hurdles. Still, Texas appears positioned for continued rapid expansion thanks to diverse drivers from migration, births, and economic opportunity.