MrBeast and PewDiePie are two of the biggest YouTube stars today. PewDiePie currently has over 111 million subscribers, making him the most subscribed individual creator on the platform. MrBeast, on the other hand, has over 96 million subscribers and is growing at an incredibly rapid pace. This has led many to wonder – how long will it take for MrBeast to surpass PewDiePie as the #1 most subscribed YouTube channel?
In this article, we’ll take a deep dive into the subscriber counts and growth rates of both creators to estimate how long it might take MrBeast to overtake PewDiePie. Understanding the historic growth and future trajectories of these channels can give us a data-driven prediction.
Current Subscriber Counts
Let’s start by looking at the latest subscriber numbers for each channel (as of October 2022):
| YouTuber | Subscribers |
|---|---|
| PewDiePie | 111 million |
| MrBeast | 96 million |
PewDiePie still maintains a decent lead with 111 million subscribers versus MrBeast’s 96 million. However, when we look at the growth trends and trajectories of these channels, we’ll see that the gap is closing rapidly.
Historic Growth Rates
Next let’s examine the subscriber growth of each channel over the past few years:
| YouTuber | 2019 Subscribers Gained | 2020 Subscribers Gained | 2021 Subscribers Gained |
|---|---|---|---|
| PewDiePie | 14 million | 15 million | 16 million |
| MrBeast | 20 million | 25 million | 40 million |
Here we can clearly see MrBeast rapidly accelerating, gaining 20 million subscribers in 2019, 25 million in 2020, and a whopping 40 million new subscribers in 2021 alone.
Comparatively, PewDiePie has maintained a steady but slower pace of growth adding around 15 million subscribers annually.
This massive growth for MrBeast can likely be attributed to his ultra viral stunts and challenge videos that spread across YouTube and other social media platforms. His subscriber count appears to be growing at an exponential rather than linear rate when compared to PewDiePie’s steady growth.
Future Projections
Given the very different growth trajectories of these two channels, we can now speculate about how long it might take MrBeast to surpass PewDiePie.
Let’s assume PewDiePie continues adding around 15 million new subscribers each year.
For MrBeast, we’ll estimate two growth scenarios:
Conservative Estimate:
- 2022: +50 million subscribers
- 2023: +60 million subscribers
- 2024: +70 million subscribers
Optimistic Estimate:
- 2022: +70 million subscribers
- 2023: +90 million subscribers
- 2024: +100 million subscribers
Here’s how the subscriber counts would play out under both scenarios:
Conservative Estimate Growth
| Year | PewDiePie Subscribers | MrBeast Subscribers |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 126 million | 146 million |
| 2023 | 141 million | 206 million |
| 2024 | 156 million | 276 million |
Optimistic Estimate Growth
| Year | PewDiePie Subscribers | MrBeast Subscribers |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 126 million | 166 million |
| 2023 | 141 million | 256 million |
| 2024 | 156 million | 356 million |
Based on these projections, MrBeast would overtake PewDiePie sometime between late 2023 and early 2024. The exact timing depends on just how rapidly MrBeast can continue growing his hyper-viral channel.
Factors to Consider
There are a few variables that could accelerate or delay MrBeast surpassing PewDiePie:
- If MrBeast has another viral year like 2021 gaining 40+ million subscribers, he could take over the #1 spot even sooner.
- On the other hand, it’s possible MrBeast’s growth may begin slowing as his channel matures. This could extend the timeline a bit.
- PewDiePie gaining subscribers quicker than estimated could also delay MrBeast overtaking him.
- Dramatic shifts in YouTube’s algorithm that favor one creator over the other could impact the race.
Overall though, based on current trajectories, MrBeast appears poised to end PewDiePie’s reign as the most subscribed individual YouTuber sometime in late 2023 or early 2024. He is adding subscribers at an exponential rate that is rapidly closing the gap with PewDiePie’s more linear growth.
Conclusion
In conclusion, although PewDiePie maintains the top spot for now, MrBeast’s exponential growth points to him likely overtaking PewDiePie within the next 1-2 years.
MrBeast’s subscriber count is accelerating exponentially thanks to his viral stunts, while PewDiePie grows at a slower steady rate.
Late 2023 or early 2024 seem the most likely timeframes for MrBeast to surpass PewDiePie based on current growth trends. However, shifts in YouTube’s algorithm or changes in growth rate could delay or accelerate the timeline. We’ll have to wait and see how the battle between these two YouTube titans plays out!