The potential threat of a nuclear missile attack from Russia is a concern for US national security. Russia maintains the world’s largest nuclear arsenal with approximately 6,257 nuclear warheads as of 2022. With tensions between Russia and the US on the rise in recent years, there is renewed interest in understanding how quickly a missile could reach the US mainland if launched from Russia.
Flight time from Russia to US
The flight time for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from Russia to the US would depend on several factors:
– Launch location in Russia
– Target location in the US
– Type of ICBM used
ICBMs are guided ballistic missiles with a minimum range of 5,500 km (3,400 miles). Russia’s land-based nuclear missiles are located in bases deep inside the country and would have to travel a long distance to reach the US.
Some estimated flight times from major Russian missile bases to major US cities:
| Launch Location | Target City | Flight Time |
|---|---|---|
| Moscow | New York City | 30-35 minutes |
| Saint Petersburg | Washington DC | 25-30 minutes |
| Plesetsk | Chicago | 25-30 minutes |
| Vladivostok | Seattle | 20-25 minutes |
As shown, flight times would range from 20 minutes for a launch from eastern Russia to 30-35 minutes from central areas closer to Europe. The west coast of the US would have less warning time than the east coast for a missile coming from Russia.
Factors influencing flight time
The exact flight time would depend on the:
Launch location:
– Missiles launched from western Russia like Saint Petersburg would have a shorter flight time than those coming from central or eastern launch sites.
– Submarine-based missiles in the North Atlantic or Arctic Ocean could reach the US faster than land-based missiles. Russia has several nuclear missile submarines that patrol close to US waters.
Missile trajectory:
– The path of the missile, whether flying over the North Pole or across Europe and Canada, impacts total distance travelled.
– Travelling over the North Pole in a high lofted trajectory is the most direct route from Russia to the US. This allows the missile to cover a shorter distance in the minimum time.
Number of warheads:
– Russia’s ICBMs like the SS-18 Satan can carry up to 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) warheads.
– A missile carrying fewer warheads can travel faster than one with maximum warheads.
ICBM type:
– Modern Russian ICBMs like the Topol-M have higher top speeds and can reach targets faster than older SS-18 or SS-19 missiles.
– Topol-M missiles are reported to reach speeds of up to Mach 20-22 in flight. This allows them to cover 10,000+ km in around 30 minutes.
Target location:
– East coast cities like New York and Washington DC would have shorter warning time than west coast cities.
– Central US cities would also receive little advance warning, with flight times under 30 minutes from Russia.
Russia’s land-based ICBMs
Russia currently has around 318 deployed ICBMs across several missile bases according to the Federation of American Scientists:
| Missile | Number Deployed | Range (km) | Speed (Mach) |
|---|---|---|---|
| RS-24 Yars | 108 | 12,000 | 24 |
| RS-12M Topol | 60 | 10,500 | 21 |
| RS-18B Voevoda | 46 | 11,000 | 24 |
| RS-12M2 Topol-M | 78 | 11,000 | 21 |
| RS-26 Rubezh | 10 | Over 5,500 | N/A |
| RS-24 Yars | 16 | 12,000 | 24 |
The most advanced ICBMs like the RS-24 Yars and RS-12M2 Topol-M can travel at speeds over Mach 20 giving them the capability to reach the US within around 30 minutes. The older SS-18 Satan missile has slightly lower performance but still sufficient to deliver warheads to the US in under 35 minutes.
Russia also has an active program to replace older ICBMs with newer variants by 2024. Improvements in speed, accuracy and ability to evade missile defenses will be incorporated in new missiles deployed over the next few years.
Russia’s submarine-based missiles
In addition to land-based missiles, Russia has submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) deployable from nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN). These include:
| Missile | Number Deployed | Range (km) | Speed (Mach) |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSM-56 Bulava | 128 | 8,000+ | Mach 25 |
| RSM-54 Sineva | 96 | 8,300 | Mach 23 |
With at least 5-6 SSBNs on patrol in the Atlantic or Arctic Oceans, Russia could have over 200 SLBMs in striking distance of the US at any time. A high-speed Bulava missile fired from an SSBN in the mid-Atlantic could hit the east coast in under 20 minutes.
US missile defense systems
The US operates a multi-layered missile defense system designed to intercept incoming ICBMs:
Ground-based interceptors:
– There are 44 Ground-Based Interceptors (GBI) based in Alaska and California, designed to intercept missiles in mid-course.
– Tests of the GBI have had an uneven success rate stopping ICBM-type targets to date.
Aegis BMD ships:
– The US Navy operates over 35 Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) equipped ships with SM-3 interceptors.
– These are designed to intercept missiles in the midcourse and terminal phases over the ocean.
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD):
– THAAD systems provide terminal missile defense against short and intermediate-range missiles.
– They have shorter range than the GBI and SM-3 interceptors.
Patriot missile defense:
– Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries provide point defense against incoming ballistic and cruise missiles.
– Their range is limited so they would only be effective in the terminal phase.
While US missile defenses provide some protection, they cannot realistically prevent a full-scale ICBM attack given Russia’s extensive arsenal and ability to launch large salvos of missiles simultaneously. The warning times for an attack are also short enough that intercepting missiles in the midcourse phase remains challenging. Overall, current US missile defense offers limited protection against a major nuclear missile strike by Russia.
Conclusion
In summary, flight times for nuclear missiles from Russia to major US targets would generally be between 20 to 35 minutes depending on the launch location. Russia has an extensive ICBM arsenal with several hundred missiles capable of reaching Mach 20+ speeds to cross the North Pole in the minimum time. While the US has missile defense systems in place, these would likely only be able to intercept a portion of incoming warheads in an all-out attack. The short warning times and huge scale of a nuclear exchange with Russia would pose major challenges for US defenses. Maintaining strategic stability, arms control and open communications between Russia and the US is critical to preventing potential nuclear conflict.