Is the world's food running out?

The world’s population is growing rapidly, expected to reach 9.8 billion by 2050. With this growth comes increased demand for food. Some fear that food production will not be able to keep up, resulting in widespread hunger and starvation. Others are more optimistic, pointing to advances in agriculture that can boost yields. So what’s the real story? Is the world running out of food?

Key Facts and Figures

The world currently produces enough food to feed everyone – around 3,000 calories per person per day.
However, around 9% of the global population, or 690 million people, are undernourished due to poverty and lack of access.

Global food production has been steadily increasing for decades and is projected to keep pace with population growth.
However, hunger and malnutrition remain high in certain regions like sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
Climate change is projected to put increasing pressure on food production in the future.

So while we currently produce enough food globally, it is not reaching everyone due to inequality and distribution challenges. Climate change also threatens future food security.

Examining the Arguments Around Food Scarcity

There are good arguments on both sides of this debate:

The Case for Impending Food Scarcity

Those who argue that we are headed for a food crisis point to a few key factors:

Population growth – We will have 2 billion more people to feed by 2050, requiring a large increase in food production.
Rising incomes and consumption – Growing middle classes, especially in Asia, are consuming more resource-intensive foods like meat and dairy.
Climate change – Rising temperatures, extreme weather, droughts and flooding threaten crop yields.

Land degradation – Loss of arable land due to erosion, salinization and other factors limits agricultural expansion.
Water scarcity – Agriculture accounts for 70% of global water use. Water shortages threaten production.

Based on these challenges, some argue that food supplies will fail to keep up with rising demand in the coming decades.

The Case Against Imminent Food Scarcity

On the other side, those who reject the idea of impending food scarcity make the following points:

Historic yields – Crop yields per acre have been steadily rising for decades due to technology, fertilizers and farming methods.
Untapped potential – Much of Africa and Latin America have yet to realize their full agricultural potential due to poor infrastructure and lack of investment.

Advances in agriculture – GMOs, hydroponics, vertical farming and other innovations could further expand yields.
Waste and overconsumption – Up to 30% of food worldwide is lost or wasted. Tackling this could significantly boost supply.
Changing diets – Moving away from meat-heavy diets could allow the existing cropland to feed more people.

Based on these factors, some argue that we can meet the challenge of feeding a growing population through innovation and more efficient use of resources.

Historical Trends in Food Production and Population

Looking at historical data can provide useful context on this debate:

Food Production

Cereal production rose from 877 million metric tonnes in 1961 to over 2.5 billion tonnes in 2017.

Meat production grew from 71 million tonnes in 1961 to 335 million tonnes in 2017, a nearly 5-fold increase.
Fish capture from wild fisheries grew modestly from around 50 million tonnes per year in the 1960s to 90 million tonnes in 2017.
Aquaculture has boomed since the 1980s, reaching 114 million tonnes in 2017 and surpassing wild-caught fish.

Overall, global food production has expanded significantly over the past half century. Yields per acre have increased and food diversity has improved in many parts of the world.

Population

The world population sat at just over 3 billion in 1960. It surpassed 7 billion in 2011 and continues rising.
However, population growth rates have declined. The annual growth rate peaked at 2.2% in 1963. It now sits around 1.1%.

Fertility rates have fallen sharply in emerging economies but remain high in parts of Africa.
The United Nations projects world population will reach around 9.8 billion by 2050 and about 11 billion by 2100.

So while population is still rising steadily, growth rates have moderated. The rapid population surges of the 20th century may not continue indefinitely.

Projections of Future Food Demand and Production

Several major studies have made baseline projections about food supply and demand to mid-century:

Food Demand Projections

The FAO estimates food demand will grow by 50% by 2050, requiring a 69% increase in animal-based foods and a 49% rise for crops.
Meat demand is expected to rise 73% between 2010 and 2050, with beef rising by 95%.

Growth will mainly come from developing countries as incomes rise.
Total calorie demand is projected to rise by 35% as both population and consumption rise.

Food Production Projections

The FAO projects crop production will need to rise by 60% from 2005/07 levels to meet 2050 demand.

Meat output will need to rise by 71%.
Yield growth for major cereals will slow from 2% annually since 1961 to 1.2% by 2050.
More land will come into production, but the annual growth rate will drop from 0.8% to 0.2%.

Scenario	Crop Production Increase by 2050	Meat Production Increase by 2050
FAO Baseline	60%	71%

Most models foresee crop and livestock yields continuing to improve but at a slower pace than during the rapid growth of the Green Revolution era. Expanding agricultural land will help but is constrained by water availability and land degradation.

Can Technology Overcome Natural Limits?

Many argue that technology can break through natural limits and expand food production:

GMOs – Genetic modification has boosted yields of major crops like corn and soybeans by introducing drought resistance, pest resistance and higher photosynthesis efficiency.

Precision agriculture – Using data analytics, sensors and automation to optimize inputs like water, fertilizer and pesticides can improve yields.
Indoor vertical farming – Systems that grow crops stacked in layers indoors with LED lighting and hydroponics can achieve extremely high yields per square foot.
Meat alternatives – Plant-based meat substitutes and cultured meat grown from cells could reduce land and resource demands if widely adopted.

Gene editing – New CRISPR technology allows quick and precise editing of plant and animal genes to give desired traits to boost productivity.

However, some caution that these technologies have limitations or unknown risks:

GMOs have seen reduced efficacy over time as pests develop resistance. They may aid incremental yield growth but are not a silver bullet.

Precision agriculture depends on access to data, connectivity and infrastructure that many developing country farmers do not have.
Vertical indoor systems have high capital costs and energy demands, making scalability a challenge.
Most meat substitutes remain relatively expensive compared to conventional meat.

Gene editing technology is new and needs rigorous testing to assess ecological and health impacts.

Furthermore, these technologies alone cannot overcome physical constraints like freshwater scarcity or climate change. They may be useful tools but not panaceas.

Key Actions to Ensure Food Security

Whether or not scarcity is looming, actions in several key areas could improve food security:

Increase Productivity of Underperforming Regions

Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Southern Asia have high rates of hunger but low farm productivity. Increased use of irrigation, fertilizer and modern practices could boost yields.
Infrastructure investment is needed to connect farmers to markets and reduce post-harvest losses.
Training programs and education can improve agricultural expertise and adoption of new methods.

Sustainably Close Yield Gaps

precision agriculture, improved soil management, and efficient water use can increase yields without placing excessive strain on resources.
Research should aim to develop higher-yielding and more resilient crop varieties. Gene editing may assist this.
Managing yields and targeting interventions based on precise farm-level data can ensure sustainability.

Curb Food Waste and Loss

Up to 30% of food worldwide is lost or wasted from farm to fork. Reducing this through improved storage, transport, portion sizes and other mechanisms can save resources.
Changing food date labeling practices and educating consumers can cut household food waste.

Promote Sustainable Diets and Meat Alternatives

Shifting diets away from resource-intensive meat and dairy toward plant-based alternatives could reduce agricultural land and water demands.

However, traditional livestock holders must be supported in this transition.
Research, incentives and communication campaigns can encourage sustainable dietary shifts.

Adapt to Unavoidable Climate Impacts

Developing heat, drought and pest resistant crop varieties can increase resilience to climate change.

Adjustment of planting schedules and locations will be needed as growing conditions shift.
Improving irrigation efficiency and water storage capacity provides a buffer against droughts.
Risk management tools like crop insurance help farmers cope with weather extremes.

Is Collapse Inevitable or Avoidable?

Overall, the balance of evidence suggests major food crises are not inevitable in the coming decades. However, without concerted action, hunger and malnutrition will remain higher than they should be.

Technological optimism must be tempered by awareness of risks and limitations. Sustainably increasing production where possible, reducing waste, adapting to climate change, and promoting balanced diets can create resilience.

But political will and global cooperation are essential to make progress on hunger while protecting natural resources. With commitment and innovation, a future of nutritious diets for a peak population of 10-11 billion is achievable. But there is little room for complacency.

Conclusion

In summary, the world faces real challenges in sustainably feeding a growing population in the face of climate change. However, widespread starvation is not inevitable.

Targeted efforts to raise yields in developing countries, close yield gaps sustainably, cut waste, shift diets and adapt to climate impacts could allow food production to keep pace with demand.

Technology can assist this transition but is no silver bullet. Whether the world steps up to meet this challenge is ultimately a political and social choice, not just a technological limit. With focused effort, a food-secure future for 10+ billion people remains within reach. But it will depend on priorities and actions today.