The chances of dying each day depend on many factors like age, health conditions, lifestyle choices, and exposure to risks. While the precise probabilities are complex to calculate, we can make reasonable estimates of daily mortality odds using available data.
Average daily mortality odds
According to the National Safety Council, the average lifetime odds of death from any cause for a person living in the United States are 1 in 107, or 0.93%. This translates to odds of about 1 in 11,698 of dying each day. However, these lifetime odds include the much lower risks in childhood and youth. For adults, the risks are higher.
The average life expectancy at birth in the US is about 79 years. With a population of around 329 million, and about 2.8 million deaths per year, this equates to an average daily mortality rate of around 0.009%. In other words, about 1 in 10,900 people in the US die each day on average. But this figure is just an average for the whole population.
Daily mortality odds by age
Age is one of the biggest factors affecting mortality risk. The daily odds of dying rise significantly with age as the body’s systems gradually decline. According to data from the Social Security Administration:
- At age 50, the average daily odds of death are around 1 in 9,125 (0.011%).
- By age 60, the odds rise to around 1 in 2,726 (0.037%).
- At age 70, it’s around 1 in 1,461 (0.068%).
- By age 80, it jumps to around 1 in 388 (0.26%).
- At age 90, the daily mortality odds are a sobering 1 in 116 (0.86%).
So while a healthy 50-year-old may face daily mortality odds of only around 0.01%, an 80-year-old faces odds about 26 times higher at over 0.25% per day.
Daily mortality odds by gender
Gender is another demographic factor that influences lifespan and mortality risk. According to the CDC, the average life expectancy is:
- Male: 76 years
- Female: 81 years
Accounting for population size, this equates to approximate daily mortality odds of:
- Men: 1 in 8,400 (0.012%)
- Women: 1 in 12,150 (0.0082%)
So women face about 30% lower odds of dying each day compared to men on average. Biological and hormonal differences, as well as lifestyle factors, contribute to this gender gap.
Daily mortality odds by health condition
Health conditions like heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and chronic lower respiratory disease are leading causes of death in the US. Having these diseases significantly increases daily mortality risk compared to healthy people of the same age and gender. Some examples:
- Heart disease – 1 in 2,500 daily mortality odds at age 65
- Lung cancer – 1 in 250 daily mortality odds at diagnosis
- Diabetes – 1 in 1,500 daily mortality odds at age 60
- COPD – 1 in 900 daily mortality odds at age 70
So while a healthy 70-year-old may face 1 in 1,461 odds, a 70-year-old with COPD has nearly double the risk at 1 in 900 odds. Managing conditions with medical care can help reduce risks.
Daily mortality odds by lifestyle factors
Lifestyle choices also affect longevity and mortality risk significantly. For example:
- Obesity – up to 2x higher mortality odds depending on severity
- Smoking – 2-3x higher mortality odds vs non-smokers
- Heavy drinking – 1.5x higher mortality odds
- No exercise – up to 1.5x higher mortality odds
Adopting healthy lifestyle habits like maintaining a healthy weight, not smoking, moderate alcohol intake, and regular exercise can reduce the daily odds of death by up to half compared to an unhealthy lifestyle.
Daily mortality odds by injuries/accidents
Injuries from accidents are a major cause of death and can significantly spike daily mortality odds. Some examples of increased risks:
- Motor vehicle crash – 1 in 5,000 odds of death
- Fall – 1 in 20,000 odds of death
- Drowning – 1 in 1,100 odds of death
- Firearm assault – 1 in 500 odds of death
Practicing safety precautions, like wearing seatbelts, preventing falls, learning swim skills, and avoiding violence, can drastically reduce injury-related mortality risks that may otherwise cause a sudden spike in the daily odds of dying.
Daily COVID-19 mortality odds
The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically increased mortality rates over 2020-2022. At its peak, COVID-19 increased daily mortality odds to:
- Age 18-29 – 1 in 33,000 (3x higher than normal)
- Age 65-74 – 1 in 1,300 (6x higher than normal)
- Age 85+ – 1 in 150 (14x higher than normal)
Vaccination has now reduced the excess risks substantially. But COVID-19 still contributes to daily mortality, especially among unvaccinated older adults and those with risk factors.
Conclusion
While the precise odds are hard to pinpoint, the daily risk of death for most adults falls in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1,000 – or 0.01% to 0.1%. The risks rise steadily with age and are higher with serious medical conditions. Men face moderately higher risks than women on average. Certain injuries can temporarily cause very high mortality odds before risks normalize again. Leading a healthy lifestyle helps reduce general mortality risk day-to-day.