World War 2 had a devastating impact on Germany’s population. By looking at Germany’s pre-war population trends and comparing them to post-war figures, we can estimate what Germany’s population might have been without WW2.
Germany’s Pre-War Population Trends
In 1933, when the Nazis came to power, Germany had a population of around 65 million. Germany’s population had been growing steadily in the decades before WW2:
- In 1871, at the founding of the German Empire, the population was 41 million
- In 1910, it had increased to 65 million
- By 1939, on the eve of WW2, Germany’s population was around 80 million
This reflected a growing population across Europe at the time. Fertility rates were still relatively high, with the average German woman having around 2.5 children in the early 1930s. Medicine and hygiene were improving, meaning lower infant mortality. Germany was urbanizing and industrializing quickly, driving internal migration from rural areas to the cities.
If these pre-war trends had continued without WW2, Germany’s population would likely have surpassed 100 million by the end of the 1930s. Conservative estimates suggest the population could have reached 105-110 million by 1945 in the absence of war.
The Impact of WW2 on Germany’s Population
Germany’s population was devastated by World War 2. The war lead to:
- Millions of German military and civilian deaths
- Displaced persons and refugee crises
- A postwar baby bust
- Loss of territory and expulsion of ethnic Germans from other parts of Eastern Europe
By May 1945, when Germany surrendered, its population had already dropped to around 70 million. However, the negative demographic impacts of the war continued in the postwar years. Here are some key figures on how WW2 affected Germany’s population:
- Military deaths: Around 5.3 million German soldiers died. Most died on the Eastern Front fighting the Red Army.
- Civilian deaths: Around 2 million German civilians were killed, either directly in bombing raids and crossfire or indirectly through disease and malnutrition.
- Ethnic Germans expelled: After the war, between 12-14 million ethnic Germans were expelled from territory lost to Poland and the Soviet Union in the east. An estimated 2 million died during these expulsions.
- Postwar baby bust: The birth rate crashed after the war, with the average number of children born per woman falling from 2.5 pre-war to only 1.2 in 1945-46.
Adding up these figures, Germany’s wartime losses totaled around 13 million people. The expulsion of ethnic Germans and the postwar baby bust further reduced Germany’s population growth potential.
Germany’s Actual Postwar Population
In 1950, five years after the end of WW2, Germany’s population was calculated at 68.7 million. By 1960, it had risen slightly to 72.5 million. However, Germany’s population did not surpass its 1939 pre-war peak of 80 million until 1972, over 25 years after the end of WW2.
Over the next few decades, Germany’s population remained relatively stagnant due to the lingering impacts of WW2 on demographic growth:
- 1970 – 78.1 million
- 1980 – 78.3 million
- 1990 – 79.8 million (following German reunification)
It was not until the early 2000s that Germany’s population started growing more robustly again, primarily as a result of immigration and higher birth rates among immigrant communities.
Germany’s Hypothetical Population Without WW2
If Germany had continued its pre-war population growth trends without the devastating impact of WW2, its population could have been significantly higher over the last 80 years. Here is a hypothetical estimate of how Germany’s population could have grown if not for WW2:
| Year | Actual Population | Hypothetical Population Without WW2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1945 | 70 million | 105-110 million |
| 1950 | 68.7 million | 115-120 million |
| 1960 | 72.5 million | 130-135 million |
| 1970 | 78.1 million | 140-150 million |
| 1980 | 78.3 million | 145-160 million |
| 1990 | 79.8 million | 155-170 million |
| 2000 | 82.2 million | 160-180 million |
| 2010 | 81.8 million | 165-185 million |
| 2020 | 83.2 million | 170-195 million |
This projection assumes Germany’s prewar population growth of around 1-2% annually would have continued through the 1930s, 40s and 50s without WW2. By 1960, Germany’s population could have been nearly double its actual size. Even by 2020, Germany’s population could be 100 million higher if not for the war.
Conclusion
World War 2 had a catastrophic and long-lasting impact on Germany’s demographics. Between combat deaths, civilian casualties, lost territory and the postwar baby bust, Germany’s population was around 13 million lower by the end of the war. The prewar population momentum was completely lost.
It was not until the past two decades, thanks to immigration and higher birth rates, that Germany’s population has returned to growth levels comparable to the pre-WW2 era. But Germany’s population today still remains around 25% lower than what it could have been without WW2.
The war’s demographic effects essentially robbed Germany of tens of millions of lives over the course of the 20th century. Reconstruction and recovery would have faced very different challenges had Germany’s population followed its prewar growth path. Of course, the social, economic and geopolitical impacts of an additional 100 million Germans in Europe over the past 70 years are impossible to guess. But there is no doubt that WW2 dealt a demographic blow from which Germany is still recovering today.