Skip to Content

Which marriage is more likely to end in divorce?

Marriage is a major milestone in many people’s lives. However, about 40-50% of marriages in the United States end in divorce. Researchers have looked at various factors that may predict whether a marriage is more or less likely to end in divorce. In this article, we’ll explore how age at marriage, level of education, income level, premarital cohabitation, and other factors relate to divorce risk.

Age at marriage

Several studies have found that marrying at a very young age is associated with higher divorce rates. People who marry in their teens and early 20s have a higher divorce rate compared to those who marry later.

For example, one study found that 48% of marriages among women who married before age 18 ended in divorce within 10 years. This compared to 32% for women who married at age 20-24 and just 24% for women who married at age 25 or older.

There are several possible reasons for the higher divorce rates among those who marry young:

  • Maturity – Younger people may be less mature and not fully ready for the commitment of marriage. They are still developing their identity and may grow apart from their spouse.
  • Life experience – Those with less life experience may be more naive about what makes a marriage work and less prepared for conflict.
  • Education/career – Young spouses are often still pursuing their education or establishing a career. The stresses of school, work, and finances can strain the marriage.
  • Change – Marrying young means you may change and grow more than your spouse over time as you continue to mature.

While not a guarantee, marrying at an older age when you have more life experience and maturity seems to set the stage for a more stable union.

Education level

Research has consistently shown that marriage relationships where one or both partners have more education tend to be more stable. Those with less than a high school degree have the highest rates of divorce.

In one study tracking marriages formed between 1950-1959, nearly 80% of couples who did not complete high school ended up divorced by 1969. Among couples with more education the divorce rates were lower:

  • High school degree: 63%
  • Some college: 54%
  • College degree: 36%

Higher levels of education likely contribute to marital success in several ways:

  • Income – More education often equates to higher earnings and financial security.
  • Communication skills – Education can improve interpersonal skills for resolving conflicts.
  • Problem-solving – Learning to think critically may help handle challenges.
  • Maturity – The discipline required to attain higher education may indicate emotional maturity.

While formal education is clearly not the only factor, having similar education levels as your spouse seems to predict greater marital satisfaction and lower divorce risk.

Income level

A couple’s financial resources also impact divorce likelihood. Research shows that both poverty and economic hardship are linked to higher rates of divorce.

Having a stable middle-class income appears to be protective for marriage. In a 2010 study, couples with no income challenges were 31% less likely to get divorced than couples facing 3 or more income-related stressors like inadequate housing, difficulty paying bills, or unemployment.

There are a few reasons money matters when it comes to marriage success:

  • Fights over finances are a top cause of marital tension and arguments.
  • Chronic financial stress erodes emotional intimacy over time.
  • Poverty can negatively impact mental health, leading to mood disorders.
  • Financial crises limit quality time spent together as a couple.

While money can’t buy happiness, having adequate financial resources lowers stress and conflict that can derail marriages. Establishing financial compatibility before marriage is wise.

Premarital cohabitation

Today it is much more common for couples to live together before marriage. This allows them to share experiences as a trial run before committing to marriage. However, research indicates that premarital cohabitation is associated with higher rates of divorce later on.

One study found the following 5-year divorce rates based on premarital cohabitation:

  • No premarital cohabitation: 20% divorce rate
  • Cohabited with future spouse: 33% divorce rate
  • Cohabited with someone else: 46% divorce rate

There are different theories on why cohabiting couples often don’t go the distance:

  • Less commitment – The lack of formal commitment may hinder complete bonding.
  • Poorer matches – Moving in together for convenience instead of marriage readiness.
  • Unconventional attitudes – More accepting attitudes toward divorce.

Cohabitation may work better when the arrangement is driven by commitment rather than convenience or finances. Couples should ensure they align on relationship values and goals before sharing a home.

Demographics

There are also some demographic factors that predict divorce rates, such as race, ethnicity, and location.

In the U.S., census data indicates that Black couples have the highest rates of divorce, followed by Hispanic couples. Non-Hispanic whites and Asians have lower rates of divorce.

However, it is important to note that these variations come down to socioeconomic factors versus the demographics themselves. When accounting for income, education, and age at marriage, the gaps between ethnic groups diminish significantly.

Geographic region is another demographic indicator. States in the southern U.S. tend to have higher divorce rates than states in the Northeast. However, this again reflects socioeconomic factors, as poverty is more common in southern states.

Divorce rates by race

Race Divorce rate
White 41%
Hispanic 46%
Black 47%
Asian 27%

Previous divorces

Unfortunately, having one divorce significantly increases your chances of getting divorced again in a second or third marriage.

About 60% of second marriages end in divorce. And the rates go up to 70% for third marriages ending in divorce.

Some key reasons previous divorces raise the risk include:

  • Unresolved issues – Past relationship problems are carried into the new union.
  • Emotional baggage – People have a harder time trusting and being vulnerable.
  • Lack of role models – Growing up in divorced families makes divorce seem common.
  • Poor match – Rushing into a new marriage without addressing problems.

That said, many re-marriages do succeed. Taking time to heal, reflect, and grow after a divorce can help pave the way for a lasting second or third marriage.

Other factors

There are many additional factors tied to the likelihood of divorce:

  • Smoking – Couples with one or two smokers have a significantly higher divorce risk.
  • Weight – Spouses who become obese have a higher chance of separating.
  • Mental health – Untreated depression and mental illness strains marriages.
  • Substance abuse – Alcoholism or drug abuse ruins relationships.
  • Infidelity – Cheating often leads directly to divorce.
  • Domestic violence – Physical abuse destroys marriages.

Research has also shown benefits to marriage stability when couples share key traits like race, ethnicity, age, religion, politics, education, intelligence, values, social status, and physical attractiveness.

Conclusion

While any marriage can end, certain factors have proven to predict higher or lower risk of divorce. The less mature and prepared you are for marriage, the more likely you are to get divorced. Demographics like race and location have less direct impact than socioeconomic status.

Ultimately, taking time to choose the right partner and build a strong foundation before marriage seems key. Entering a lifelong commitment requires knowing yourself first. With self-awareness, emotional maturity, and the right partner, you can beat the odds stacked against lasting marriage.