The race to 20 wins in the NBA is always an exciting one. With teams jockeying for playoff positioning and seeding, reaching that 20 win mark first is a good benchmark for success in the league. This season, there are a few top contenders who could realistically be the first to hit 20 wins.
The Favorites
The Boston Celtics currently have the best record in the NBA at 17-4. With Jayson Tatum playing like an MVP candidate, the Celtics look poised to continue their winning ways. Assuming they can maintain their 71% winning percentage, the Celtics are on pace to reach 20 wins by their 25th game, which would be around December 7th.
Not far behind Boston are the Milwaukee Bucks at 15-5. Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks currently have a 75% winning percentage. At their current pace, Milwaukee is projected to win their 20th game on December 9th.
The Phoenix Suns at 15-6 also can’t be counted out. The defending Western Conference champs have started off strong once again and are winning at a 71% clip. Phoenix is on track to win 20 games by December 11th.
| Team | Current Record | Projected 20th Win |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 17-4 | December 7th |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 15-5 | December 9th |
| Phoenix Suns | 15-6 | December 11th |
Based on their current pace, the Celtics, Bucks and Suns appear to be the frontrunners to reach 20 wins first. However, there are a few other teams who could catch fire and beat them there.
Don’t Count Out
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the biggest surprises of the season so far. Led by Donovan Mitchell, the Cavs are off to a 13-8 start and are winning at a 62% rate. If they can maintain this pace, Cleveland is on track to eclipse 20 wins by December 15th.
The Atlanta Hawks and New Orleans Pelicans are right there with the Cavs at 13-9. Trae Young has the Hawks operating at a 59% win rate, while the Zion Williamson-led Pelicans are winning at the same clip. Both squads are projected to win their 20th contest around December 17th if current trends hold.
Although they have struggled of late, the Los Angeles Clippers shouldn’t be ruled out either once Kawhi Leonard and Paul George get healthy. At 11-10, if the Clippers play to their potential they could rattle off enough wins to be a darkhorse in this race.
The Contenders
While not quite as hot as the teams mentioned above, there are some other contenders who could fight their way into this race with a few winning streaks.
The Portland Trail Blazers at 11-9 have been a surprise under new head coach Chauncey Billups. Led by the duo of Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons, the Blazers have won at a 55% rate so far. If they find some consistency, Portland could be a darkhorse.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Utah Jazz both sit at 12-9 on the season so far. Despite trading away Rudy Gobert, the Jazz have continued to chug along led by Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen. The Grizzlies been led by their young core of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr as they try to build on last year’s playoff run.
Finally, the defending champion Golden State Warriors can’t be counted out at 13-11. It’s been an up and down start for the Dubs, but when the Splash Brothers get hot they can win in bunches.
| Potential Darkhorses | Current Record | Projected 20th Win |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 13-8 | December 15th |
| Atlanta Hawks | 13-9 | December 17th |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 13-9 | December 17th |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 11-9 | December 19th |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 11-10 | December 19th |
Down to the Wire
Of all the teams analyzed, the Celtics, Bucks and Suns appear to be in the driver’s seat to get to 20 first based on their current pace. However, the NBA is notorious for its unpredictability and parity.
The Cavs, Hawks and Pelicans have shown enough early on to indicate they could rip off a winning streak and get there first. And the Blazers, Grizzlies and Warriors have the talent to get hot and make a run.
Ultimately, it will likely come down to which teams can stay healthy and continue performing at a high level. The race to 20 wins always brings excitement in the NBA, and this year is shaping up to be a competitive one down to the wire.
The Celtics and Bucks appear to have a slight edge, but teams like the Suns, Cavs, Hawks and Pelicans are hot on their heels. It may not be settled until the final days before Christmas.
No matter which franchise ultimately gets to 20 wins first, it promises to be a fun battle in the early months of the 2022-23 NBA season. Fans should enjoy watching it play out over the next few weeks.
Predicting the Final Order
Based on current pace and schedules, here is one projection for the order teams could realistically reach 20 wins:
- Boston Celtics – December 7th
- Milwaukee Bucks – December 9th
- Phoenix Suns – December 11th
- Cleveland Cavaliers – December 15th
- Atlanta Hawks – December 17th
- New Orleans Pelicans – December 17th
- Portland Trail Blazers – December 19th
- Los Angeles Clippers – December 19th
- Memphis Grizzlies – December 21st
- Utah Jazz – December 23rd
Of course, the NBA season always tends to veer from projections. The actual order will likely look different based on injuries, trades, and other factors. But this projection gives an idea of who could realistically get to 20 first based on the current landscape.
Why Getting to 20 Matters
Reaching 20 wins first may seem like an arbitrary milestone. But there are a few important implications that come with getting to 20 first:
- It shows a team is off to a very strong start and is potentially an early contender in their conference.
- For teams that miss the playoffs, it gives them an early benchmark for improvement and growth.
- It demonstrates the roster, coaching and system are successfully coming together.
- Teams that start off hot tend to build momentum and confidence that carries through the season.
- Fast starts help playoff positioning later in the season with seeding and home court.
While not a definitive predictor of success on its own, getting to 20 wins first is a notable feather in a team’s cap. It’s a sign they are headed in the right direction early in the marathon NBA season.
How Coaching Impacts the Race
A big factor in which teams reach 20 wins first is quality coaching. The best coaches in the league tend to have their teams ready to go from opening night.
Coaches like Erik Spoelstra, Monty Williams, Mike Budenholzer and Steve Kerr have historically had very strong starts with their respective teams. Their continuity, culture and systems give their rosters an early edge.
On the flip side, teams with new head coaches like the Lakers, Hornets and Pistons have more adjusting to do. As coaches implement new systems, it can take time to build chemistry and execution, leading to slower starts.
Developing an identity and style of play takes coaching time. That’s why more tenured coaches often reach benchmarks like 20 wins first – their foundations are already in place.
How Scheduling Impacts the Race
Another big factor in starting fast and reaching 20 wins is schedule strength. Some teams benefit early on from home-heavy schedules and facing weaker opponents.
For example, through their first 20 games the Raptors have played 12 at home against mostly non-playoff teams from last season. This scheduling quirk has helped propel them to a quick start.
On the flip side, the Lakers have played 14 of their first 21 games on the road against stiff competition. Their difficult schedule has contributed to their sluggish start out the gates.
The compressed nature of the early NBA schedule can also test team depth. The more back-to-backs and travel a team faces, the harder it is to rack up wins consistently. Teams with better depth and conditioning can overcome the demanding early schedule.
How Injuries Derail the Race
Perhaps the biggest factor that can derail a fast start is injuries. NBA history is full of examples of hot teams getting debilitated by injuries.
Last season, the Bulls raced out to a 24-10 start and topped the Eastern Conference before injuries to key players like Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso and Patrick Williams sent them spiraling down the standings.
The Nets looked poised to contend before being hampered by injuries to Ben Simmons and later getting derailed by Kyrie Irving’s absence. The Clippers and Nuggets also had injury issues curtail otherwise strong starts.
Staying healthy is critical for sustaining early momentum. Teams like the Celtics and Bucks have so far avoided major injuries, helping fuel their race out the gates this season.
But as the grind of the NBA schedule ramps up, health and durability could play a major role in determining who eventually gets to 20 wins first.
How Trades Impact the Race
The trade market also cannot be discounted. Teams are always looking to bolster their rosters as the season wears on.
Last year at the deadline, trades for CJ McCollum and Norman Powell propelled the Pelicans and Clippers up the standings in the second half.
Teams currently just outside the top records like the Wizards and Kings could try and swing a big trade. Adding an impact player could provide the spark they need to make a run at 20 wins.
Conversely, current top teams may opt to trade away veterans and pivot towards rebuilding. That would open the door for teams beneath them in the standings.
With how tight the race is shaping up, a key trade or two could change the landscape quickly. The 20 win mark is certainly within reach for teams in both conferences.
Conclusion
The race to 20 wins is always an exciting subplot that reveals early contenders in the NBA. This season projects to have one of the most competitive races in recent memory.
The Celtics, Bucks and Suns have set the early pace, but the Cavs, Hawks and Pelicans are threatening to catch them soon.
While the current leaders have an edge, injuries, trades or cold shooting could quickly swing the race. It will likely come down to which teams can stay healthy, develop momentum and potentially swing a season-altering trade.
No matter which franchise reaches the 20 win mark first, getting there quickly establishes them as a force to be reckoned with both now and later in the season.